> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # REPORTING: A Second Poll Shows Jamie Davis Within 4 Points of Julia Letlow In the Louisiana U.S. Senate Race - URL: https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/reporting-a-second-poll-shows-jamie/ - Published: 2026-09-25T18:49:58.000Z - Updated: 2026-10-29T19:42:27.000Z - Description: “This is not going to be a slam dunk race for Julia [Letlow]” - Author: Danny Cherry Jr. - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1793302873443, #Import 2026-10-29 19:42 I will continue to keep my newsletter free for the foreseeable future, but things such as public records, editors, and even the interview recording app I use, cost money. So if you find value in my work, please consider becoming a paid subscriber at $5/month! --- There’s a buzz among the political world that there will be a blue wave this upcoming midterm—but can that blue wave hit Louisiana? [Subscribe](#/portal/signup) Notably, President Trump carried the state by 22% over Kamala Harris in 2024, and a Louisiana Democrat hasn’t won a U.S. Senate seat since Mary Landrieu’s win in 2008. But, on September 23rd, Louisiana U.S. Senate candidate Jamie Davis’s campaign released a poll of likely voters, conducted from September 17th to 19th, that shows the Democratic candidate trailing Republican candidate Julia Letlow by 4 points—Davis has 44% to Letlow’s 48%. 8% of likely voters remain undecided. ![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/11dbce6d-47e6-40a5-a00e-c9ddad6df7f1_553x342.png) This is the second poll that shows Davis only lagging behind by 4 points, with the [first poll](https://www.wwno.org/2026-08-19/poll-shows-4-point-difference-between-letlow-and-davis-for-u-s-senate-1-in-5-undecided?ref=newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page) being released in August showing Letlow leading with 41% to Davis’ 37%, with 22% of voters undecided. In both cases, the campaign commissioned the polls. The first poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling surveying 518 registered voters, and the September poll was conducted by Hart Research Associates with 500 likely voters. That distinction between “registered” and “likely” is important, because in Louisiana, the number of people who actually turnout to vote is usually much smaller than the people who are registered. If you’re from Louisiana, it’s difficult to imagine a Democratic upset taking place in this state. However, since Trump took office in 2025, the Democrats have been overperforming in special elections, have [flipped multiple seats](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/08/georgia-affordability-utility-campaign-democrats-00815277?ref=newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page) blue in a state-wide race in Georgia, have [flipped 21 percent](https://boltsmag.org/legislative-elections-results-2025/?ref=newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page) of GOP-held State Legislative seats in 2025, and could potentially end up taking both chambers of U.S. Congress in the 2026 midterms. This all coincides with floundering polling numbers for both Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry and President Trump. So, maybe there is room for hope. **THE POLLING NUMBERS:** The survey was conducted via landline, cell phone, and text-to-web and has a margin of error of +4.5%. Hart Research’s report states that Jamie Davis (44%) is within striking distance of Julia Letlow (48%), despite the Republican’s name recognition advantage. This result came before biographical details about the candidates were given. However, Letlow’s name recognition is double that of Davis, with 82% of respondents recognizing Letlow and only 41% being familiar with Davis. Letlow, the report states, is a “polarizing” figure, while Davis has “strong popularity” among Louisiana voters that have heard of him. In addition, among the nearly quarter of respondents who identified as independents, an important swing group, 42% viewed her negatively while only 28% viewed her positively. The report notes that if Davis were to gain support and funding and increase his name recognition, he could mount a winning campaign. Pollsters make this case by making several observations: 1. Davis holds a “significant” lead of over two-to-one among the portion of the electorate that is familiar with both he and Letlow. 2. Davis leads with a 47% to 41% margin when polled among non-partisan voters. 3. Davis jumped into the lead after “positive” descriptions of both candidates were provided. Those descriptions were: “Julia Letlow, a Republican from Monroe, was the first Republican woman elected to Congress from Louisiana when, in 2021, she won a special election to replace her husband, Luke Letlow, after his death. Before entering Congress, she earned a doctorate in communication, then worked in higher education and healthcare education at the University of Louisiana Monroe and Tulane University’s medical school. Endorsed by Governor Landry, she has President Trump’s complete and total endorsement and in the Senate will work to implement a conservative America First agenda.” And: “Jamie Davis is a Democrat from Tensas Parish, a third-generation row-crop farmer and business owner. Davis is the first Black person nominated to run for Senate in Louisiana since reconstruction. He operates his family’s 3,200-acre farm, the same Delta ground his grandfather sharecropped, and served his neighbors on the Tensas Parish Police Jury, where he looked for common-sense solutions to help heal his community. Davis is running for Senate to focus on making life more affordable and ensuring access to healthcare, NOT partisan politics.” After their bios were provided, Davis jumped to a 9-point lead, with 53% to Letlow’s 44%. **WHO WAS SURVEYED:** Of the 500 likely voters surveyed, 48% were male, and 52% were female. In terms of who they voted for in the 2024 election, 58% voted for Trump, and 42% voted for Harris. 85% of respondents stated they were “certain to vote,” 10% said they would “probably vote,” and 5% stated it was a “50-50” chance. 47% were Republican and 35% were Democrats. The age ranges (numbers are percentages; not all tables will equal 100% due to rounding): ![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/ea8287af-2c18-4627-b0ad-f74326820cf1_413x213.png) Racial/ethnic makeup: ![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/5acaf609-86f4-4c5c-8e1a-4e6fffb0495b_360x150.png) Education level composition: ![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/3fd33f4b-0b9b-4248-aa14-f91aaa1229ae_439x143.png) **WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN:** Reading the information provided gives the sense that if more people knew about Davis, he could be pulling ahead, as indicated by the post-bio graph. However, veteran Louisiana pollster John Couvillon was hesitant to put much stock in that lead jump. He said, “That’s one of those ‘under perfect lab conditions’ kind of questions, where if the world were only exposed to 100% sunshiny information about Jamie Davis and 100% negative information about Julia Letlow” it would make Davis seem like the more viable candidate. But he added, “It is not an entirely unreasonable poll,” because he’s been doing some polls around the country that show there is a 12% defection from Republicans to Democrats happening nationally. Couvillon stated he didn’t believe the Louisiana Senate race would be a carbon copy of the presidential race in Louisiana, in which Donald Trump won 60% of the vote to Kamala Harris’ 38%. He added, “I don’t see Julia winning by 20 points.” He provided 3 reasons: “The first is she \[went\] through a contentious primary and runoff, and as far as I can tell, I’ve not seen any kind of successful reconciliation with either \[Louisiana U.S. Senator\] Bill Cassidy or \[Louisiana Treasurer\] John Fleming… What has hurt Louisiana Republicans in the past has been lingering hard feelings, such as \[during\] the 2015 and 2019 governors’ races. Reason number two: when I do my polling—\[and\] it’s not just in Louisiana but other states \[as well\]—I’m seeing defections from Republicans.” By “defection,” he’s referring to when registered members of a certain party vote for the opposing party in an election. “You’re never going to have 100% of \[registered voters supporting\] your party’s nominee. It just doesn’t work that way. But normal defection to me would be 5%. I am seeing defections from Republicans towards Democratic candidates in about the 12% range,” he added. Reason number three is that there’s been a big drop in support for Republicans among [independents](https://yougov.com/en-us/articles/55604-democrats-hold-14-point-lead-likely-voters-2026-midterms-congressional-election-september-18-21-2026-economist-yougov-poll?ref=newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page). Couvillon said, “Independents are always the deciding factor in a political race, unless, of course, you’re talking about a constituency that’s so heavily Republican, \[independent votes\] don’t matter. But if you’re losing or underperforming with independents, that is a problem. I would say the other thing that \[isn’t\] helping Julia Letlow is that she had identified herself very strongly with President Trump.” Letlow notably tied herself very closely to President Trump during the closed GOP primary and runoff elections, which helped her because only registered Republicans (and independents who chose a Republican ballot) can vote in Louisiana U.S. Senate primaries now. Couvillon added, “At a time when Trump’s popularity is sagging across the country, I don’t think that is a politically advantageous stance to take when now you’re not having to only win over Republican voters; you’re having to win over a sufficient number of independents and whatever remaining conservative Democrats there are. So, all of those reasons are why I think this is not going to be a slam dunk race for Julia, even though I do believe she’s still much more likely to win than not.” The report shows that if Davis can get the resources and make his message and his name known, he could potentially close that 4-point gap, if not run a winning campaign. --- > **Support my work by sharing my newsletter with a friend, subscribing, or if you are feeling up to it, buying me a** [**coffee**](https://ko-fi.com/deecherrywriter?ref=newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page) **:)** > > **Oh, you can also become a paid subscriber, too. All money will be used to grow the newsletter!** > > **I also wrote a crime** [**novel**](https://books2read.com/thepikeboys/?ref=newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page)**. K, that’s it.** Suggested reading: [Investigation: Meet the Christian Nationalists Coming for Louisiana’s Libraries\*\*\*This story may be too long to read via email. You might have to click here to be taken to my website, where you can find the story, and read in full with no interruptions. (story originally published in Antigravity Magazine)![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/3f0a11f7-dc06-4d37-a342-805811e7d7a0_1280x1280-3.png)New Southern RevoltDanny Cherry Jr.![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/97b4f193-81bf-40c3-88e1-6eda548eba48_1050x1200-jpeg-1.jpg)](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/investigation-meet-the-christian/) [REPORTING: New Orleans Teacher Petitions Supreme Court To Block Louisiana's Ten Commandments LawLouisiana’s 2020 Teacher of the Year, Chris Dier, has petitioned the Supreme Court to weigh in on Louisiana’s Ten Commandments law, which requires all K-12 schools and higher learning institutions in Louisiana to put Ten Commandments posters on their classroom walls. This new petition comes four months after Dier’s initial lawsuit—filed in 2024—was dism…![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/3f0a11f7-dc06-4d37-a342-805811e7d7a0_1280x1280-4.png)New Southern RevoltDanny Cherry Jr.![](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/content/images/2026/10/c5f3334f-7987-4e59-bfe6-777ac9bbe3c9_1024x667-jpeg.jpg)](https://newsouthernrevolt.mymagic.page/reporting-new-orleans-teacher-petitions/) [Subscribe](#/portal/signup)